My father taught me to think about an NFL team’s 16-game schedule in 4 quadrants of 4 games. The schedule has since been expanded to 17 games, but I find that this quadrant method for evaluating a team’s performance still holds true. Each quadrant is essentially a mini-season with the final 17th game serving as a pseudo play-off game. The benefit to viewing a season in this manner is that it prevents one from jumping to knee-jerk conclusions based upon the outcome of a single game. Instead, judgement and declarations are withheld until each quadrant has been completed.
The NFL is getting wackier and harder to predict by the day with devastating injury, unexpected heroes, and inconsistent officiating making enormous impacts on, seemingly, every single game. The New York Jets have felt the impact of each of these in the first quadrant of the 2023 season. For example, nobody needs to be reminded of the colossal anvil that was dropped on the New York Jets on the 4th offensive play of the season. Despite such a catastrophe, undrafted rookie Xavier Gipson miraculously walked off the win in Week 1 with an electric punt return to secure a critical divisional win against one of the best teams in the league.
The pendulum of unpredictability unfortunately swung back against the Jets in Week 4 by way of the officiating crew somehow determining that a Sauce Gardner routine hand fight with a receiver was somehow more deserving of a holding call than Jermaine Johnson getting detained and disrobed with a clear path to the quarterback of the Kansas City Swifties (formerly known as the Kansas City Chiefs). Regardless of the chaos, the results for Quadrant 1 were 1 win, 3 losses.
Objectively, 1-3 is not good. According to my father’s record evaluation protocol, going any worse than 2-2 in a given quadrant (regardless of opponent) should be regarded as a failure. For this quadrant, however, I am willing to grant the Jets some slack. Losing the newly instated franchise centerpiece on the 4th offensive snap of the season is an unusually and unprecedentedly monumental setback to overcome for a young team. Has there ever been anything quite comparable happen in any of the major sports? The entire team, not just the offense, was built around Aaron Rodgers from soup to nuts.
Joe Douglas signed his old cronies at receiver. Nathaniel Hackett was hired to install the offensive system with which Rodgers feels most comfortable. The Jets seemingly even granted Rodgers an informal role of player-coach, which noticeably elevated the mindset of every individual involved with the organization, including the fans. The defensive coordinator instilled the attitude in his players that no matter what happens on the field that they must keep fighting because with #8 behind center, they can never be counted out. With so much positive momentum gone in a flash, the 2023 New York Jets now won’t be counted in by anyone other than themselves and their fans for the rest of the season.
So how much slack should be given for such circumstances? In the NFL, there is never more than a tiny bit of slack to be given but as it turned out, the Jets only used that little bit. If Rodgers had played all 4 of these games, we realistically would’ve expected the Jets to go 2-2 while optimistically hoping for 3-1 because this was still a team that had to work out the kinks associated with a complete offensive overhaul in the offseason. Growing pains had to be expected. Also, strength of schedule is never an excuse, but does count for something and this was a brutal slate of opponents to open the season – for any team. Accounting for all of this, the Jets are really only one game back from where we should’ve expected them to be. This means, however, that there is no more slack to be had for the rest of the season if this team hopes to end the 12-year playoff drought. The Jets cannot go any worse than 2-2 during any remaining quadrant this year and will, most likely, need at least two 3-1 quadrants.
There’s one enormous cause for optimism that presented itself in the last game of the first quadrant, however, that no Jets fan would’ve expected if they had read the script for how the beginning of the season was going to play out before it started. Zach Wilson has shown signs of becoming a legitimate, reliable starter in this league. Against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, Zach Wilson had a completion percentage of 71.8% with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. His only real blemish was a huge one (a dropped snap that resulted in a crucial turnover), but his overall performance was an undeniable step in the right direction.
Perhaps most importantly though, Wilson seems to have captured the confidence in himself that coach Saleh has been trying to speak into existence for weeks. In Wilson’s press conference on Thursday (10/5) he was loose, accountable, and comfortable. These qualities are different than what we’ve seen in the past from him and awfully reminiscent of his newest mentor/big brother Aaron Rodgers. Wilson said that he “can’t wait…for next week” and now, because of him, neither can the fans.
What judgements and declarations am I comfortable making after the first 4 games of the season?
1. This team is resilient. The Jets stole a win during a heartbreaking opening night, were humbled by the Cowboys, and then fought the Chiefs hard after another demoralizing defeat at the hands of their biggest rival: The New England Patriots.
2. Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous leader and has had, and will continue to have, an immeasurably beneficial effect on the roster in 2023 and beyond (regardless of whether he is on the field or in the stands).
3. Zach Wilson deserves a ton of respect for his resiliency, refusal to hang his head, and desire to improve.
4. The playoffs are still a realistic possibility.
Let’s say that again: the playoffs are still a realistic possibility. It’s time to beat the Broncos while reminding Sean Payton to keep his disrespectful comments to himself.